When Risk Controls Make Diversification Conditional

In March 2026, several of the large multi-manager platforms lost money together as crowded macro positions came under pressure. In July a similar shock, the unwind of crowded technology positions, ran through the same industry but produced ...
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8 min read

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The Hidden Price of Smooth Returns

The private-credit spread is real. Whether the illiquidity premium survives smoothed marks, fees and credit losses is a separate question, and for investors who cannot choose their exit date, the answer is less comfortable. Private-credit ...
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6 min read

Term Premium Is Back, and It Changes the Price of Leverage

The ten-year Treasury touched about 5.3% at the end of September, its highest in nearly twenty years. The number worth your attention isn't the yield, though. It's what sits inside it. Any long yield splits into two parts. There's the ...
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10 min read

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QIS in September: Rates Momentum Paid. Carry Lost the Lead. Breadth Broke.

September was not a conventional risk-off month. Growth remained resilient, AI-linked earnings held up and the Nasdaq advanced. At the same time, oil moved above $100, sovereign yields rose sharply and the dollar strengthened. For QIS, ...
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8 min read

Every Day, the Market Hires a Counter-Trend Trader

The tape has been calmer than the news. Rates still unsettled, tariffs unresolved, an equity market leaning hard on a handful of AI names, and yet the S&P has spent long stretches grinding higher in tight ranges with the VIX pinned ...
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8 min read

The market does not pay you for suffering

“You have to own this strategy through the cycle.” Fair enough. Good managers have bad years, and even a sound investment process can disappoint for longer than anyone would like. Selling every time that happens is unlikely to end well. ...
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5 min read

A Sleeve Is Only as Good as Its Regime

Most sizing decisions use one correlation number per sleeve. It's almost always the wrong one. The figure that ends up in the risk model is a full-sample correlation: the sleeve's co-movement with the rest of the book, measured across its ...
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7 min read

QIS in August: Carry Rebuilt. Credit Led. Correlation Reversed.

August was constructive for QIS, but it was not a return to an uncomplicated risk-on regime. Equities recovered from July’s dislocation, AI-linked exposures regained momentum and credit spreads remained exceptionally firm. At the same ...
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6 min read

What a QIS track record cannot tell you

Much of the track record you are shown for a QIS index is simulated. The useful question is not how the simulation performed. It is whether the simulation was measuring the same thing the live index measures. In one rulebook we read, it ...
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5 min read

Decide the Role Before You Read the Track Record

Most reviews of a systematic convexity sleeve start with the strategies and work outward. That order is wrong. The constraints that decide the outcome nearly all follow from a question about role, and that question usually gets answered ...
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9 min read
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