Low Volatility Is Not Low Risk: The Marks That Flatter a Private Book

A private credit fund shows you a chart a public bond fund can only envy. The returns grind higher in a near-straight line, the drawdowns are shallow, and the volatility is a fraction of anything quoted on a screen. The pitch writes ...
9 min read

Term Premium Is Back, and It Changes the Price of Leverage

The ten-year Treasury touched about 5.3% at the end of September, its highest in nearly twenty years. The number worth your attention isn't the yield, though. It's what sits inside it. Any long yield splits into two parts. There's the ...
10 min read

Every Day, the Market Hires a Counter-Trend Trader

The tape has been calmer than the news. Rates still unsettled, tariffs unresolved, an equity market leaning hard on a handful of AI names, and yet the S&P has spent long stretches grinding higher in tight ranges with the VIX pinned ...
8 min read

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A Sleeve Is Only as Good as Its Regime

Most sizing decisions use one correlation number per sleeve. It's almost always the wrong one. The figure that ends up in the risk model is a full-sample correlation: the sleeve's co-movement with the rest of the book, measured across its ...
7 min read

Your Diversification Is Conditional. Size It That Way.

In July, an equity unwind ran through crowded technology and AI positions. The funds built to withstand exactly that kind of single-factor hit — diversified multi-strategy books — still lost about 2.2% on average. Asia-Pacific equity ...
5 min read

ELTIF 2.0 Changed the Wrapper. It Didn't Change the Assets.

A semi-liquid wrapper does not make an illiquid asset liquid. It reschedules the illiquidity. Europe spent 2026 building the case for that sentence — rolling ELTIF 2.0 evergreen funds into wealth portfolios at the same moment the US ...
5 min read

The Metric Every Pitch Deck Gets Backwards

A manager triples assets in three years and every IC memo calls it validation. Bigger book, more institutional interest, stronger franchise. Almost nobody in the room asks the only question that actually matters: at what size does this ...
5 min read

Crowding Isn't One Trade. March Proved It.

It's the first week of July, and the book is still working through the sharpest momentum unwind since 2023 — two weeks of losses that gave back roughly a quarter of the year's gains, per Goldman's prime brokerage desk. It's the fifth time ...
6 min read

Most conversations about prepayment risk start too late

Someone says "mortgages," someone else says "negative convexity," and the room moves on as if the strategy has been defined. It has not. A prepayment-risk strategy is not simply a rates trade with mortgage jargon around it. It is a trade ...
10 min read

Four Banks, Eight Times Leverage: What the S&P Warning Means for Hedge Fund Counterparty Risk

The hedge fund industry's financing is now concentrated in four prime brokers at leverage multiples not seen since the pre-GFC era. That is the unavoidable conclusion from S&P Global's latest report, published this week: BNP Paribas, ...
7 min read
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